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Estimating Terrorism Risk (Rand Corporation Monograph)
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From the Inside Flap
This monograph provides a practical definition of terrorism risk, presents a method of estimating it, and demonstrates a framework for evaluating this method. Results support conclusions on how to improve risk-based resource allocation.
23/05/2008
Since the tragic events of 9/11, a myth has developed that if just the right mixture of counter terrorism strategies can be found, the U.S. can be ensured against another terrorist attack on its soil. Although this is complete nonsense, it is a myth that is embraced electric power plants, petroleum refineries etc.). So if DHS would surprise everybody and actually adopt the CTRMP proposal would this really solve at least one thorny counter-terrorism issue? Well no it would not. There is no substitute rational thought and real knowledge of the types of terrorist enemies that the U.S. is threatened by and there is no evidence that DHS is particularly interested in knowing its terrorist enemies or thinking rationally about the threats those enemies pose.
This monograph is not an enjoyable read, but it is an important one. This reviewer would suggest reading it with Stephan Flynn's book "America the Vulnerable" ([...]) which goes into considerably more detail about the need to be able to have the resiliency to recover quickly from what must be inevitable terrorist attacks as well as natural disasters.
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